Geopolitical Turbulence: Preparing for the Unpredictable
Geopolitical risks are expected to escalate in 2025, with increasing threats against public officials, rising geopolitical rivalries and the normalization of state-sponsored attacks contributing to an uncertain global landscape. Emerging threats, such as the radicalizing effects of regional conflicts and the normalization of state-sponsored attacks, further underscore the importance of proactive risk assessments.
Emerging technologies, including low-cost drones, 3D-printed firearms, AI driven cyberwarfare, disinformation and misinformation are challenging the traditional security measures and extending the threat landscape to new targets and locations. Concurrently, the radicalizing effects of conflicts in regions like Gaza and Lebanon represent a generational challenge with global implications, fueling ideological extremism and violence. Although the violence may not directly target organizations, such violence undermines political stability and diminishes economic confidence, creating a challenging environment for businesses globally.
Businesses must adopt strategies to anticipate sudden political destabilization and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical violence. Leaders cannot think of moving their business in isolation and must keep their risk managers close during decision marking. Further, in this volatile landscape, businesses must prioritize crisis and business continuity management, proactive risk management and enhance their understanding of geopolitical trends and prepare for the consequences of geopolitical instability to safeguard their operations, assets and future plans.
Global Trade Wars: Strategies for Resilience
The rise of global trade wars in 2025 presents significant risks to businesses, driven by divergent economic policies from major players like the United States and China. China’s vast manufacturing capabilities, coupled with policy shifts in advanced economies aiming to reduce critical supply chain dependencies, are reshaping the global trade landscape. Meanwhile, the United States is expected to adopt a more protectionist stance, with targeted tariffs on strategic sectors potentially leading to retaliatory measures and dampened economic growth.
In this context, businesses must prioritize making supply chains resilient to geopolitical shifts. Beyond operational and regulatory concerns, companies need to evaluate vulnerabilities that may come up due to tariffs, sanctions and use of economic warfare.
Further, organizations must monitor evolving trade policies closely and identify strategic opportunities to participate in policymaking processes to safeguard their interests. By proactively addressing these challenges and aligning their strategies with the changing trade environment, businesses can better navigate the complexities of the global trade war and maintain operational stability.
Investigations Evolved: Tackling Insider Threats
As social engineering attacks continue to rise, organizations face a growing challenge in managing complex investigations while addressing the imbalance between investment value and resource allocation for security. Insider risks and untrained employees pose significant vulnerabilities, making it essential for security programs to adapt to a more data-driven and collaborative approach to investigations. In 2025, organizations must prioritize preliminary investigation techniques, such as predictive analytics, to proactively identify and mitigate risks.
Additionally, organizations should emphasize employee training focused on recognizing and reporting red flags, ensuring that all stakeholders – human resources, legal, IT and business operations – are engaged in mitigating security risks. Developing a robust program will allow security teams to assess key indicators, adjust their strategies and realign their focus to address evolving insider threats effectively.
By fostering a more collective approach and leveraging data-driven insights, organizations will enhance their ability to manage investigations and ensure comprehensive security in a dynamic and interconnected threat landscape.
Intelligence in the Age of Misinformation: Navigating Challenges with Innovation
The growing importance of intelligence in ensuring business continuity and resilience is driving investments in advanced tools and research expertise. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers transformative capabilities for improving the efficiency of data collection and analysis. However, its potential to disseminate misinformation underscores the ongoing necessity of human oversight to ensure accuracy and reliability.
As corporate leaders demand early-stage risk detection, organizations are adopting platforms that integrate advanced threat monitoring and early warning systems. These tools complement human expertise, enabling more proactive risk mitigation. To navigate the ethical challenges posed by AI-driven disinformation, businesses are also enhancing compliance frameworks and oversight mechanisms. This approach ensures intelligence operations remain both ethical and effective in a complex and rapidly changing risk environment.
The fusion of human expertise, cutting-edge technology, and ethical governance will be pivotal in defining the success of intelligence programs in 2025.
Executive Protection: From Optional to Essential
As we move into 2025, recent incidents related to top executives as well as national level politicians have brought Executive Protection (EP) to the forefront. EP is fast transitioning from a discretionary measure to a critical board-level priority. Organizations are increasingly recognizing the need to integrate advanced technologies, refined processes, and skilled personnel into their EP programs to effectively safeguard leadership in a rapidly evolving threat landscape. The emphasis is shifting toward using protective intelligence to proactively identify and address risks, including emerging threats on the deep and dark web, the motivations of lone actors, as well as the early signs available on social media.
Challenges such as copycat attacks, social media doxing, and violence associated with brand affiliation are driving the adoption of dynamic and adaptive protection models. Beyond ensuring individual safety, robust EP programs contribute significantly to organizational resilience, reputation management, and stakeholder confidence. Counter-surveillance strategies, including discreet monitoring and proactive intelligence efforts, are becoming essential tools in detecting and neutralizing risks before they escalate.
The most successful EP programs in 2025 will be those that understand and address the interconnected nature of threats, ensuring protection extends beyond individuals to encompass their corporate and public roles.
The author is the Head of Corporate Security, VFS Global
